American Security Council Foundation (ASCF)

IAEA report says Tehran may be building Nuclear Warhead

By Robert Fragnito February 19, 2010

A confidential report by the International Atomic and Energy Agency (IAEA) said it has found evidence suggesting that Iran may be building a nuclear warhead. The new director general of the IAEA, Yukiya Amano, wrote in the report that recent findings by the watchdog could reveal Tehran's real purpose for its nuclear program.

 

Amano said in the report, “The information available to the agency...raises concerns about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile.”

 

The report comes at a time where western powers are seeking tougher sanctions on Iran for not coming clean with its nuclear program. Iran last week announced on the anniversary of the Iranian Revolution that it had produced enriched uranium at 20% purity, a level suitable for medical purposes, but that could also be further enriched for weapons. Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, declared again that Iran is a nuclear state to celebratory crowds on February 11.

 

Although the Obama Administration did not refute the new report, the United States still stands by its intelligence community's conclusion that Iran ceased efforts to build nuclear weapons. Administration officials highlighted the report's findings on Iran's technical difficulties with the program primarily related to limited supply of raw uranium for enrichment. Officials also said that Iran is producing 100 grams of 20% enriched uranium a day, a rate where Iran could build a nuclear weapon in five to seven years. In addition administration officials statements, the IAEA said Iran is operating its centrifuges at half capacity, a significant drop since the last report.

 

It appears that the Obama administration is pleased with what appears to be a shift in tone with the new IAEA director. Amano seems to be taking a stricter approach in the IAEA's mission as an international nuclear watchdog, whereas the former director, Mohammad ElBaradei, viewed the IAEA's purpose in a broader sense for maintaining international peace and security.

 

Despite the findings of the IAEA, Iran is still determined to complete work on its nuclear program even if the international community takes tougher action. Iran's envoy to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, said in an interview with Britain's “New Statesman” magazine that Iran would not give up on its nuclear program “at any price” and that the west must get used to Iran being a master of enrichment.

 

The new IAEA report puts the west and the Obama administration in a difficult situation given surfacing evidence that Iran may be attempting to develop nuclear weapons. The Obama administration's position is best described by National Security Adviser, General Jim Jones in his recent interview with Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday. When Wallace asked Jones “haven't they sent their message to you?...going to take no for an answer?” Jones replied, “We're drawing that conclusion, and we are going through the U.N. this month to present sanctions and to seek solidarity. We have tremendous support.”

 

Tremendous support transformed into action will have to be determined as the international community continues to deal with Iran. As it stands, the Obama administration's 2009 year-end deadline has passed, support from China and Russia are still in question, and Iran is not intent on stopping.

 

RECOMMEND READING:

• Iranian Proxies: An Intricate and Active Web (STRATFOR via MEMG)

• Iran: A Different Type of Regime Change (INEGMA via MEMG)

• How Do Revolutions End: The Iranian Islamic Revolution at a Crossroad (INEGMA via MEMG)

• A Defensive Buildup in the Gulf (STRATFOR)

 

Robert Fragnito is an ASCF contributor and the President and Founder of the Middle East news blog MEMG: The Middle East Monitoring Group. Fragnito's blog focuses on aggregating news articles concerning geopolitical events in the Middle East.