American Security Council Foundation (ASCF)

Round 2: Iran and P5+1 to Meet in Vienna to discuss Agreement on Enriched Uranium

By Robert Fragnito October 13, 2009

As officials from Iran, Russia, France and the United States gear up for a second round of talks on October 19 in Vienna, Tehran says if talks fail, it will continue to enrich uranium.

Iran's Atomic Energy spokesman, Ali Shirzadian, said that both sides will discuss ways to supply enriched uranium for a research reactor in Tehran, but warned his country will inform the IAEA it will continue enrichment to the 20% mark needed for producing radiomedicine.

Shirzadian's comments to the Iranian Students News Agency referred to an offer that would allow Iran to purchase enriched uranium from Russia and France. The purchase would incorporate an exchange for Iran's 5 percent enriched uranium to be processed outside the country. The purchased fuel would enable the Tehran research facility to supply over 120 hospitals and clinics in the country.

Tehran's warning looms over next week's talks in Vienna confirming its intentions not give an inch on its nuclear program. The nuclear program is a national issue for Iran and is being portrayed at home as a struggle against international pressure. For western officials, caution and skepticism is being exercised as talks continue with their Iranian counterparts.

The October 19 meeting will be held at IAEA headquarters. This is the second round of talks following a meeting in Geneva earlier this month.

Although the recent talks were labeled as a breakthrough in negotiations with Iran, western officials still remain cautious. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reaffirmed the Obama Administration's stance on Iran during a news conference in London on Sunday saying that the international community will not wait indefinitely for Iran to live up to its international obligations.

Following the Geneva talks Clinton described the meeting as “somewhat successful” explaining three agreements where reached with the Iranians. The agreements entail Iran sending low-enriched uranium abroad for processing, inspections of Iranian nuclear sites, and a second round of talks. Clinton said these agreements would give western powers more time to assess Tehran's commitment to negotiations.In addition, it will give the international community more time to determine whether Iran is intent on developing nuclear weapons.

Tehran agreed to abide by these commitments. Most importantly, allowing the IAEA to inspect the newly disclosed Qom nuclear enrichment facility on October 25. The disclosure of the Qom site at the G-20 summit by US President Barack Obama and the leaders of Britain and France aimed to put pressure on Iran to come clean on its program.

Tehran reacted quickly, saying it disclosed the existence of the facility prior to the summit to show compliance with the IAEA. Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defended his country's efforts to reveal the plant at the UN General Assembly meeting.

“What we did was completely legal. The agency will come and take a look and produce a report and it is nothing new...What business is it of yours to tell us what to do or not?” Ahmadinejad said.

Iranian officials at home have described the Geneva talks as a victory for Iran. Ali Baqeri, Iran's deputy head of the Supreme National Security Council, hailed the talks, saying the west accepts the Islamic Republic's “peaceful nuclear program” as fact.

Iran's IRGC aerospace commander, Hossein Salami, credited missile tests for giving an upper hand in diplomacy showing Iran's power on the internal, regional and international level.

After Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili presented his report to Iran's parliament on the Geneva talks, the Chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Kazem Jalai said the nuclear program is a national issue and all political groups in the country have reached a consensus, no deal can be cut on Iran's nuclear program. Jalai also stressed that there were no direct negotiations with the US outside the framework of the P5+1 talks in Geneva despite US representative Will Burns' attempts to hold sideline talks with Jalili. Jalai's comments also shed light on Iran's intentions regarding relations with US. Iran intends to continue working within the P5+1 framework and has no intention of re-establishing relations with the US, unless certain demands are met.

An editorial featured in Iran's conservative paper Jumhuri Eslami outlined what Tehran seeks from the US in order for a rapprochement to take place. Washington would have to apologize for involvement in the Mossadeq Coup and supporting the Shah, pledge not to interfere in Iranian affairs, release Iranian assets, and not interfere in relations with the IAEA.

As officials begin to prepare for talks, the stage is set for upcoming hurdles that await in Vienna. Iran will not concede its nuclear program, nor will it agree to any provision to halt attempts to achieve what it sees as its right to nuclear technology. If talks in Vienna fail, Iran will undoubtedly continue to enrich uranium without the help of the west. Moreover, Iran may continue utilizing the diplomatic track to by time to further develop its nuclear program.

The P5+1 will proceed with caution, observing how Iran is complying with its commitments. For the Obama Administration, a rapprochement will have to come at cost—if it is willing to meet Tehran's demands. If Obama concedes to the demands outlined in the Jumhuri Eslami editorial, Obama will face criticism at home for being weak, thereby bolstering Iran during negotiations.

As it stands, Iran will sit at the negotiating table feeling empowered and confident that the international community has accepted its “peaceful” nuclear program as a fact. For P5+1, frustration may begin to settle in, leaving the international community with fewer options to deal with Iran's nuclear program.