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After Vienna: Iran rejects nuclear deal, powers look for new options
By Robert Fragnito November 2, 2009Iran has rejected a proposal laid out in last week's meeting between the P5+1 nations and Iran, the New York Times reported late Thursday night citing European and American diplomats who were briefed on the matter.
The proposal slammed out in last week's meeting in Vienna was designed to transfer 75% of Iran's low enriched uranium to Russia for further enrichment, and later to France for fuel plate conversion by the end of the year. Iran was expected to offer its final decision on the proposal last Friday, but requested an extension which was confirmed by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency).
US officials expressed on Thursday they expected Tehran would try to drag out the negotiation process. Officials said Washington is assessing Iran's response on the draft proposal. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said the US needs more clarification on the response and a formal response would be needed from Iran. "At this point, we've been given some details of it, but we're still talking to the Iranians about it."
Tehran's reaction to the deal is not surprising. Iranian negotiators were opposed to sending low enriched uranium outside the country for processing. For the west, having Iran enrich uranium abroad would have bought more time to assess the nature of the program and stall clandestine enrichment activities inside the country. From Tehran's perspective, shipping out almost one third of its stockpile would render its nuclear program in limbo for almost a year, leaving it unable to continue to enrich uranium at home.
Iran's Foreign Policy and National Security Commission chief Alaedin Boroujerdi said on Tuesday Tehran prefers to send its LEU in segments to ensure that the supply is guaranteed. A diplomatic source who is close to the negotiating team told Iran's semi-official English news channel Press TV that sending the entire uranium stockpile is against Iran's national interests.
The proposal was also met with great domestic skepticism from Iran's conservatives. Iran's parliamentary speaker and former nuclear negotiator, Ali Laranjani was the most vocal conservative voice on this issue, he expressed great concern with the deal in an interview with the Islamic Student News Agency (ISNA) saying that western powers are looking to cheat Iran by imposing its will on the issue.
“The feeling I have, which was especially reinforced by the latest trip to Geneva and the conversations that we had, is that the Westerners are insisting on going in a direction to cheat and impose their will on us; because they said we will give Iran 20 percent enriched fuel after you give us your enriched material,” Laranjani said.
In the meantime, Iran opened its doors to its newly disclosed nuclear site at Fordo located near a military installation in Qom to IAEA inspectors on Sunday. The inspectors landed in Vienna on Thursday and will begin analyzing data for a report that will be delivered by IAEA chief Mohammad AlBaradei.
In light of Iran's announcement on amending the draft proposal, reactions from the international community were mixed. The European Union's (EU) foreign policy chief, Javier Solana responded to the changes with a warning saying in Luxembourg, “The deal was a good deal. I don't think in principle it requires fundamental changes.”
France's foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner reacted to Iran's proposed changes with great frustration. Kouchner's statements showed that his government is growing impatient with the the talks, and Tehran is stalling to buy time. He said “I think they are losing time because it is now we have to talk...One day it will be too late.”
On the Russian front, Moscow's deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov urged the great powers to “exercise maximum patience” with Tehran while speaking highly of recent efforts to engage with Iran. Ryabkov noted recent changes in Iran's position, but cautioned not to revert to old stipulations on Iran's program.
At the IAEA, Mohammad ElBaradei said Iran could not dodge shipping its LEU aboard, for it could foster mistrust within the framework of the talks. He said if Iran sends the material aboard, it would reduce tensions and clam fears on Tehran's intentions for its nuclear program.
Mistrust is still strong as western officials begin to ratchet-up efforts to impose sanctions on Iran for reneging on the deal. European foreign ministers revealed mid-week they asked the EU executive to look into imposing more sanctions on Iran, diplomats told Reuters. Kouchner added during his meeting with EU foreign ministers, “If there is the necessity -- but we might not see it until the end of the year -- we would start work on new sanctions.”
In the United States, the Senate Banking Committee headed by Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT) unanimously approved a bill that imposes sanctions on companies who provide oil to Iran. The Obama Administration is also focused on curbing Iran's economic interests by enlisting Gulf states like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to boost oil exports to China. The Wall Street Journal reports that the effort has yielded some success in hopes that the US can steer China away from vetoing sanctions on Iran at the United Nations Security Council.
President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev held a phone conversation over the weekend where they affirmed their unity on Iran if it failed to comply with the international community, but it seems Russia will not rush to impose sanctions on Tehran just yet. Russian foreign policy aide Sergei Prikhodko was quoted by the Interfax news agency saying sanctions on Iran were not likely in future.
Fears of Iran's missile and military capabilities were not put to rest either as Russia declared last week that it would not restrict military cooperation with Iran, particularly on the sale of the S-300 surface-to-air missile system.
The statement coincided with a report from Russia's Interfax news agency saying that the Russian government had not received any payments from Iran for the missile system. The west is now faced with the daunting challenge of convincing Iran to settle with sending uranium abroad for processing. The west says that it will impose sanctions on Iran to force it to comply with the international community, but the P5+1 is already divided on the matter and Russia will not move to impose sanctions, nor will China. The United States and Europe will attempt to act tough on Iran, but it is likely that Tehran will maneuver around sanctions as in the past.
Tehran stepped away from the talks empowered and feels it maintains the upper hand in diplomatic negotiations. For Iran, the Geneva and Vienna talks confirmed that the international community accepted its right to achieve nuclear technology. As the west continues to engage with Iran on the diplomacy, Tehran will continue to maneuver around commitments and deals in order to continue buying time to achieve its goals.
The west asserts it will not wait indefinitely for Iran to fulfill its international obligations, but given recent developments the international community still maintains limited restraint on giving Tehran more time to come to terms with its program. The general consensus in the west is that Tehran will have to the end of the year to fully comply with the international community, but until then, the diplomatic dance will continue.
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