American Security Council Foundation (ASCF)

U.S. Reaches out to Russia and China on “consequences” for Iran

By Robert Fragnito November 19, 2009

As the United States attempts to form a unified front on Iran's nuclear program, President Barack Obama has been engaged this week in finding assurances from Russia and China that if time runs out, Iran's two largest trading partners will pressure Tehran to come clean with its program. Assurances on the matter have been solidified in word this week, but will China and Russia follow through in deed?

 

Concerns of drawing in support for sanctions from the two permanent security council members is still in question. US President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao announced after talks in Beijing that the United States and China agreed on Tuesday Iran will face “consequences” if it resists showing greater transparency on its nuclear program. Following the meeting National Security officials told reporters no commitments were made on how to deal with Iran's nuclear program if it failed to comply with international obligations.

 

This week President Obama is attempting to resolve trade and currency issues with China as he wraps up his three day visit, but as it stands, the US holds little leverage on China to force Iran to face consequences. Exerting US pressure on China to accept sanctions on Iran will be difficult seeing that US-China relations are locked in a tit-for-tat battle on trade restrictions and tariffs where Beijing accuses Washington of engaging in protectionism.

 

China's lack of commitment is not surprising. China will continue to play it safe as it works with its Western partners to find a diplomatic solution on Iran's nuclear program. China intends to ensure that its economic and energy ties with Iran are secure. The Obama Administration is trying to reduce China's energy dependency on Iran by enlisting Gulf States like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to boost oil exports to China, so far the effort has yielded some success, but is not likely to steer Beijing away from rejecting sanctions on Iran. If the United Nations Security Council were to vote on sanctions, a Chinese veto would scrap efforts force Iran to face severe consequences for not acting in transparency on its nuclear program.

 

On the Russian front, Moscow is becoming increasingly impatient with Iran. President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev on Sunday discussed possible sanctions if Iran refuses to accept a deal allowing it to send its enriched uranium abroad for processing.

 

Analysts believe Russia will not support sanctions on Iran given its extensive trade relationship, but in recent months Russia has exerted independent pressure on Iran by stalling on its contract obligations. Russia announced on Monday it would not activate the Bushehr nuclear reactor by the end of the year citing technical issues. Although Russia maintains the reactor is intended for peaceful purposes, diplomats say the plant is used as leverage in relations with Tehran.

 

Iranian officials are frustrated by Russia's delays. Iran's conservative paper Jomhouri-e Eslami criticized Russia's moves to delay delivery of the S-300 Missile Defense System and the activation of the Bushehr reactor. The paper said the delays and Russia's increased cooperation with the US is a detriment to Russia's interests.

 

Iran's parliamentary security committee chairman, Ala Al-Din Boroujerdi, called the delayed activation of the Bushehr reactor an “extraordinary act.” Meanwhile, Iran's Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi was quoted by the Iranian Labor News Agency saying "We have a contract with Russia to buy S-300 missiles. I don't think it is right for Russia to be seen in the world as a country which does not fulfill its contractual obligations."

 

Despite reports indicating Russia could cancel the S-300 missile system, Russia's Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation said military cooperation with Iran would continue. It is expected Russia would suffer significant loses in profit if the deal is canceled.

 

There is speculation that Russia is stalling to the deliver missile systems because of lobbying efforts by Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel's Prime Minister paid Moscow a secret visit in September, it is believed Netanyahu attempted to pressure Moscow not to deliver the S-300 system.

 

Medvedev confirmed Netanyahu's visit and said Israel was not planning an attack on Iran, it is not clear whether assurances where offered by Netanyahu or Israel's President Shimon Peres who also visited Moscow in September.

 

Russia's support for sanctions is not entirely in play, President Putin and officials in the foreign ministry have recommended caution before placing sanctions on Iran. President Putin warned major powers on talk of sanctions labeling such action as “premature.”

 

Recent developments provide limited hope that Russia will not use its veto if the UN were to vote on sanctions. Although Moscow exercising unilateral pressure on Tehran is positive, we must keep in mind these actions are not new and that Russia is heavily invested in Iran. If sanctions were imposed, Russia stands to lose significantly in its relations with Iran. Until China and Russia take significant action to withdraw their energy and economic interests from Iran, it will be difficult to maintain a united front among world powers when diplomatic efforts fail.

 

UPDATES:

• Obama warns Iran of consequences over nuclear standoff (Reuters) •

Nuclear fuel won't go abroad, Iranian says (LA TIMES)

 

RELATED ARTICLES:

• After Vienna: Iran rejects nuclear deal, powers look for new options (Fragnito, ASCF)

• Round 2: Iran and P5+1 to Meet in Vienna to discuss Agreement on Enriched Uranium (Fragnito via MEMG)

 

Robert Fragnito is a ASCF contributor and the President and Founder of the Middle East news blog MEMG: The Middle East Monitoring Group. Fragnito's blog focuses on aggregating news articles concerning geopolitical events in the Middle East.