American Security Council Foundation (ASCF)

Recommended Reading for this Week

By Robert Fragnito November 23, 2009

I wanted to share an analysis piece from a Dubai based think tank with our blog readers this week. Riad Kahwaji, CEO of the Institute for Near East & Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) wrote a very interesting article discussing how political dynamics in the Middle East are rapidly changing for US allies in the region. Kahwaji's analysis enables readers to see how American foreign policy in the Middle East is being interpreted from the region's perspective. Kahwaji examines why US-allies in the region are saying “it is a bad time to be America's ally in the region.”

 

Bad Time to be a U.S. Ally in a Rapidly Changing Middle East

 

By Riad Kahwaji, CEO Institute for Near East & Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA)

 

The common view shared by several officials in many U.S.-allied countries in the Middle East is that "it is a bad time to be America's ally in the region." The main reason is the growing sense of helplessness amongst these countries in dealing with what these officials describe as threats and challenges posed by Iran and its allies in the region. "Whether it is in Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Yemen and even parts of North Africa, Iran and its proxies seem to have the momentum with very little Washington can do to stop them," one senior Arab official said. Several U.S. allies today are seeking other options to secure their interests and survival.

 

Long gone are the days of a powerful America that reached its peak right after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, when the United States led a grand alliance of states that drove Iraqi forces out of Kuwait, which set the stage for launching the Middle East peace process in Madrid in 1991. Ever since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, the U.S. posture as a true global super power and the sole dominant player in the region has been on a steady decline giving way to Iran to assert its influence in various parts of the region – often unchallenged by Washington.

 

According to some officials and analysts there are several reasons for the dwindling U.S. influence in the region, but perhaps the most important ones are the following:

 

1. Failure to resolve the Palestinian problem and openly taking the Israeli side in efforts to find a peaceful settlement to the Arab-Israeli struggle. The U.S. Administration of Barak Obama has slowly backtracked on all promises it made shortly after coming into office to freeze Israeli settlement building as a step to revive the long-stalled Middle East peace process. All Arab U.S.-allies have pleaded with Washington to resolve the Palestinian conflict as a pre-condition to resolving all other outstanding conflicts in the region. But Israeli interests and wishes seem to be untouchable in eyes of U.S. officials, which has and will always reflect negatively on U.S. policies in the Middle East. However, it is important to point out that the current Israeli government is ignoring its ally the United States at all costs.

 

2. Lack of strategy to win a so-called war on terrorism. The resurrection of Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Somalia and the spread of Al-Qaeda cells in other parts of the region have undermined the U.S. image and posture as a superpower.

 

3. While the U.S. seems to be pursuing a "cold war" style strategy against Iran, that is to suffocate Iran economically through international and unilateral sanctions and at the same time force it into an expensive arms race and support local opposition in the hope of a regime change, Tehran, on the other side, seems to be pursuing a more proactive approach aimed at establishing influence in many areas of the region using force through its proxy groups and using time to bolster its military and nuclear capabilities. In other words, Iran appears to have time on its side, while the U.S. and its allies are growing weaker by the day.

 

4. The use of maximum (military) force in Afghanistan and later Iraq after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, without achieving any political gains and adequately running the post-invasions political regional scene have undermined the confidence of the people in Washington. Many of America's allies do not believe the U.S. would be able to protect their interests or truly want to protect their interests. Mistrust is running deep between the U.S. and some of its allies in the region.

 

5. Adopting a passive approach after using maximum force (waging wars) in Afghanistan and Iraq plus repeated statements by a few American experts and officials talking about their forces being overstretched have increased the confidence of U.S. enemies in the region, especially Iran and its allies, to forcefully expand their areas of operations and boldly challenge Washington and its allies in the region. The U.S. could not do anything to help the Palestinian Authority stop the Hamas takeover of Gaza, nor could it do anything to its allies in the Lebanese government to stop Hizbullah guerrillas from overrunning Beirut in May 2008, and is still helpless in checking the powerful Iranian influence in Iraq.

 

6. While Iran has strong non-state actors like Hamas, Hizbullah and the Mehdi Army, that were well utilized on many occasions to ascertain Tehran's control, the U.S. does not have effective state or non-state actors that have used force to achieve any political gains anywhere over the past ten years. Unlike the Cold War period with the Soviet Union, the United States is not militarily backing any armed groups – like Iran is doing. So Tehran has the ability to use military force indirectly while Washington cannot.

 

7. Iran has successfully used the growing media projection in the region to build its image as a regional power on a "just quest against American-Israeli tyranny" in the Arab as well as Muslim World. At the same time, the U.S. has failed to properly use the regional media to project a new and positive image of America and instead it tried to market old and obsolete policies like pursuing war against unseen enemy called "terrorism," and establishing a nuclear free zone everywhere in the Middle East except Israel, and resolving the Palestinian conflict according to Israeli vision. "The problem is in U.S. Middle East policy and not in U.S. policy pushers or promoters," according to a senior official in the League of Arab States.

 

8. The strong arms race in the region generated by the U.S.-Iranian cold war, and Washington's failure to check Iran's growing influence or its controversial nuclear program has driven few Arab officials in countries allied with America to suspect a "conspiracy" cooked by Tehran and Washington to divide and weaken the Arab world and manipulate the oil market to their advantage.

 

9. Hardly any of America's allies believe the United States has a clear strategy or achievable objective in most of its current actions in the region. Hence, most of them would not firmly back the U.S. in any of its plans that could involve use of military force.

 

Therefore, U.S. allies in the region feel as lost and helpless as their "superpower" ally. Hence they have been more open to politically engage Iran and to seek compromises with Tehran on many fronts to avoid confrontation with the rapidly growing regional power who many believe is on the verge of joining the club of nuclear states. One Arab official said: "With a weak and hesitant ally, who needs enemies." This is also driving few regional powers, like Turkey and Saudi Arabia, to pursue their own independent policies away from the U.S. to make sure an acceptable level of stability is maintained in the Middle East and Iranian attempts to increase regional influence are checked. Even America's closest regional ally, Israel, has been threatening to take things in its own hands if U.S. efforts to stop Iranian nuclear program do not materialize. So, a new security framework could be developing in a "new Middle East" whereby regional powers would have bigger roles to play at the expense of America's fading influence. But it remains to be seen whether other super powers like India, China or Russia or Europe would be able to gain from America's losses in the region.