The complex triangle: Uncle Sam, the dragon and the elephant
By Tridivesh Singh Maini December 23, 2009Region: Asia Pacific
Topics: Emerging Threats, Bipartisanship
This article seeks to analyse some of the interesting developments pertaining to the Indo-US-China relationship over the past month. It begins with an analysis of Dr Manmohan Singh's visit to Washington DC and some of the interesting developments in Copenhagen, particularly the India-China warmth which surprised many analysts who had been harping on the rivalry between the two countries. Interestingly, while India seemed to be peeved at President Obama's cosying up to China, at Copenhagen India actually joined hands with China against first world countries, specifically the US.
The State Dinner:
Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh's state visit to Washington DC dissappointed journalists, strategic analysts and probably a significant section of the Indian populace. Varied explanations were given for Singh's lacklustre visit, during thanksgiving time, which according to many got overshadowed by the couple who gate crashed at President Obama's state dinner hosted on November 24.
India missing Bush?
The primary reasons given for this change were firstly, the contrasting approach of Obama towards two challenges, one fighting the scourge of terror in Afghanistan and Pakistan and second accepting the reality of China's rise as an economic power, rather than containing it. For Bush, the rise of China was a threat, and the former president was more belligerent in his approach towards China. In South Asia, Bush's policy focused on India and he played a key role in the Indo-US nuclear agreement going ahead, Pakistan came second. The Bush Administration's India fixation led Indian Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, a normally restrained man to remark that 'the people of India deeply love you'. Obama on the other hand has been more cautious in his approach. Not only has he acknowledged China's increasing influence globally, but to India's chagrin he has given it a numero uno role in Asia. During his visit to Beijing, his joint statement ended up giving China a role in South Asia'a affairs. Said the joint statement, the US and China "support the efforts of Afghanistan and Pakistan to fight terrorism, maintain domestic stability and achieve sustainable economic and social development, and support the improvement and growth of relations between India and Pakistan".
What the analysts tend to gloss over:
While it is true to a large extent that foreign policy can not be divorced from individuals, The US Ambassador to England in the 1990's, Raymond Seitz is said to have remarked that 'Nations tend to pursue their interests and important interests tend to remain stable'. So does Obama's conciliatory behaviour towards China in anyway indicate that he is kowtowing to China? By extending an olive branch to China, is he in anyway trying to obscure the fact that India is an important player on the world stage? If this was true then there would have been no need whatsoever, for the US Ambassador in India, Timothy Roemer to immediately state that the 'best and most important relationship to him and the people of the United States'. In the state dinner too, call it tokenism if you like, Obama reiterated the commonalities between India and the US and did not forget to mention the convergence of interests on numerous issues.
China-India warmth:
If one were to look at the China-India relationship, the fact that the two countries have joint hands against first world countries on the issue of carbon emissions clearly shows that analysts both in India and abroad need to approach the relationship in a more nuanced way and need to be more mature in analysing differences between both countries. The fact that both countries were in close touch both before and Copenhagen is evident from two newspaper reports. According to The Times of India, (December 14, 2009) 'The Indian and the Chinese governments made it clear that their leaders, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Premier Wen Jiabao, were not going to come in at the end of the talks to crack the fine details, they would agree only if the industrialised world was ready for a deal by December 16'.
While both leaders did finally attend and accept what has been called the Copenhagen accord, another report in The Indian Express, (December 19, 2009) titled 'In the chill, India-China warmth was for all to see' aptly sums up how many were surprised at the Indo-China warmth during the summit. Says the report, ' They came. They met. And they spoke in one voice.The one positive for India from the failed Copenhagen summit is the bonding it developed with China on climate change discussions and the way that kept the two Asian giants together'. The report also speaks about the cordial meeting Prime Minister Singh and Premier Jiabao had where both agreed that it was important to understand 'the primacy of the three international agreements — UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Kyoto Protocol and Bali Action Plan — while negotiating a comprehensive global agreement on climate change that could not be achieved in Copenhagen and now needs to be completed sometime next year'.
Conclusion:
While it is too early to come up with any conclusions, with regard to Indo-US and Indo-China ties, on the basis of Dr Singh's Washington sojourn and the Indo-China thaw at Copenhagen, 2010 promises to be a soothsayer's nightmare as far as global politics in general and the Indo-US-China relationship in particular is concerned.
The writer is a Research Associate with The Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal.
